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Unjuran kadar kesuburan penduduk di Malaysia dengan menggunakan pemodelan kebarangkalian Bayesian
Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item
Author: 
Mahpul, Irwan Nadzif and
Ismail, Najihah and
Mohd Muhaiyeddin, Fatin Aqilah and
Author: 
Editor: 
, and
Year:  00/11/2025
Abstract:  Bayesian Probabilistic Modelling provides a more accurate, flexible and probability-based method of fertility rate projection. This method is not limited to a single projected value, but produces probability distributions and confidence intervals (80%/95%) for various future scenarios. This approach is widely used by the United Nations (UN DESA) for global and national population projections. It allows policymakers to assess risks, uncertainties and policy impacts more comprehensively than deterministic methods. As a national agency that advises the Government in the field of demography and population, LPPKN is recommended to adopt the Bayesian method to improve the accuracy and reliability of the country's fertility rate projections and support long-term planning related to population and family
 
 
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