| Item type |
Conference or Workshop Item |
| Subjects |
100 Philosophy & psychology > 107 Education, research & related topics |
| Division/Agency |
LPPKN - National Population and Family Development Board, Malaysia: Population and Family Research Division |
| Keywords |
Population, Population projection, Bayesian Probabilistic Modelling, Fertility |
| Additional Information |
This slide has been presented by Encik Irwan Nadzif Mahpul at Persidangan Kependudukan Kebangsaan 2025 (PERKKS25), November 19-21, 2025 at Eastin Hotel, Petaling Jaya Selangor. |
| Abstract |
Bayesian Probabilistic Modelling provides a more accurate, flexible and probability-based method of fertility rate projection. This method is not limited to a single projected value, but produces probability distributions and confidence intervals (80%/95%) for various future scenarios. This approach is widely used by the United Nations (UN DESA) for global and national population projections. It allows policymakers to assess risks, uncertainties and policy impacts more comprehensively than deterministic methods. As a national agency that advises the Government in the field of demography and population, LPPKN is recommended to adopt the Bayesian method to improve the accuracy and reliability of the country's fertility rate projections and support long-term planning related to population and family |
